January 16, 2025 – When President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, all eyes in this country will be watching to see how he follows through on his decision not to apply a threatened 25-per-cent tariff on Canadian goods entering the United States.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that among Americans and Canadians alike, the hope is that Trump is all talk.

In the U.S., one-quarter (26%) support the 25-per-cent tariff on Canada, while twice as many (50%) oppose it. Among Trump supporters, this idea is initially popular, with 53 per cent support and 19 per cent opposition. That said, when considering the potential impacts to American consumers of the price of U.S. goods, enthusiasm dissipates.

Among those Trump voters, half (49%) change their mind, and instead oppose the tariffs when they are informed that some projections are that gas could rise 30 to 70 cents per gallon, given America’s current level of import of Canadian oil.

For Canadians, much of the conversation has turned to their own government’s response. With the Liberal Party searching for a new leader, many are wondering who will lead the effort against Trump once parliament sits again in March. When it does, Canadians support assertive action in the face of Trump’s threats. Three-in-five say that if Trump does impose tariffs, Canada should do the same. A similar number would support a blanket 25 per cent on all American goods, or a targeted set of tariffs at that level on critical exports.

That isn’t to say that Canadians aren’t aware of the potential damage this burgeoning trade conflict could cause. Two-in-five (39%) say that their household would face significant harm if tariffs were enacted by Trump, while another one-in-three (34%) expect to feel the impact, but less so.

More Key Findings:

• 60 per cent of Canadians say the U.S. is the countries most important trading partner. Just 13 per cent of Americans say the same of Canada.
• That said, two-thirds of U.S. respondents say that the trade relationship between the two countries benefits each close to equally. Half in Canada say this, while 37 per cent say the U.S. derives more benefit from trade
• Asked what they consider “victory” in this trade conflict with Trump, 64 per cent of Canadians say no tariffs at all. Eight per cent say lower levels of tariffs would be a win, while one-in-five say there is no winning.

See the poll insights here: www.angusreid.org

(Source: Angus Reid Institute’s report)